All Things Pondered Here

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Update On My AAPL Stock Trade

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I’m writing this moments before the market opens on Tuesday April 24th 2012.

Disclosure:  I have a vested interest in this stock.  Investing is risky and you should not invest your money based on anything you read here.  Consult a competent professional before investing any money in any type of investment.

Ok, so you can read what I had to say about AAPL yesterday – which I bought a few days ago on Friday.

My intention is to sell some time today, on Tuesday.

I am doing this for the Earnings play.

Yesterday the stock market as a whole dropped on worries about the Euro and speculation about the break up of the currency.   Which probably won’t happen for a long time, if ever.

But news and fear drives the stock market.

However, true to my thoughts.  Appl barely moved below its price on Friday.

My theory is that many players will be lining up to play AAPL today.

The price of the stock should move up drastically today.  And I will sell sometime today.

However, I could be wrong, it has certainly happened before.

This is my guess about what is going to happen today.

However, I could change my plan, to be inline with changes as necessary.

Ok, we will see how it goes today.  Comment below as you wish.

Again, do not invest based on anything you read on this blog.  I’m an amateur at best and investing is always a risk.

AFTER HOURS UPDATE

I just checked,  AAPL is up $30 in After Hours Trading.

Well, I said above that I reserved the right to change my mind as the day went on and that is what I did.

I held on to the AAPL Stock into earnings and DID NOT sell today.

WHY??

The stock was behaving in a way that I did not expect.  It was down for the day.   And on top of that volume was pretty much even with the 10 day average.

This meant that the ‘smart money’  was staying put and that got me to wondering.   ( Not that I’m saying there is insider information floating around with those institutional investors or anything like that… )

Just saying the ‘smart money’ must have suspected something.   Therefore, I made the decision to stay in.

After reading all the naysayers on twitter, I have to admit that I got a bit nervous.

However, when earnings were announced it was clear that the naysayers were mistaken.

So, I held on to AAPL this time and if there is another meteoric rise like last time (after the last earnings report), then I will be glad that I did!

You can comment below…

You might also enjoy:

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

AAPL Stock Now at 585 Per Share

 

 

My Latest Stock Market Move – AAPL

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AAPl-Stock-Bull-Investing
Disclosure on Stock Ownership

Before I tell you what I have done, I need to give you the standard disclosure necessary anytime you talk about your personal stock investments!   🙂

So, my disclosure:  By the time you read this:  I am invested, will be invested or have been invested in this stock.  I have a personal interest in seeing it do well.

You should not invest based on anything you read here or on this site!

You should seek professional investment advice before investing in anything of any kind.   Investing is risky (sort of like gambling, but not exactly) – Don’t waste your money…

I Know Little About Investing – So Watch Out!

By the way, I am an amateur investor, I don’t even use options which is what I have been told I should be doing.  But I don’t know much about them, so you can ‘educate’ us in the comment section below this post.  Looking forward to hearing from you!

Ok, so Friday  – That would be Friday April 20th, 2012,  within the last 30 minutes of trading for the day,  I purchased some AAPl (Apple) stock.

Why did I wait until the last 30 minutes?  Because the stock was being pressed down all day long by more experienced and more organized traders (just my opinion, not necessarily fact!) and I wanted to get the best price.  So I waited.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me and I’m too lazy to look them up right now.  But, I got in around $572 . per share.

My Previous AAPL ‘Disaster’ 

My previous trade with AAPL:   Well, ok, it was still a profitable trade, but I missed out on well over a hundred dollars per share (YES! You read that right).  You can read about this minor tragedy here:

https://www.allthingspondered.com/4541/apple-stock-now-at-585-per-share/

Talk about painful.  OUCH!   🙂

So Why Now?

After such a painful experience, you would think I would just stay away from the stock, right?   Well, that is how I reacted for a long time.   I didn’t want to believe it would keep going up and up – but it did!

And I was hoping for some type of correction.  But, that did not happen.    After AAPL topped $600 per share, I knew that it wasn’t going down anytime soon.

That brings us up to today:

Low and behold it is now time for the next earnings report.

This is the Play that I like the most.  I like to play into earnings.   AAPL is ‘expected’ to have a $9 + something per share earnings report after the market close on Tuesday.  Rumor is that the real number will be about 20% higher.

However, you can’t trust rumors can you?    So,  it is a risk.  Anything can happen.

But I’ve decided to play it anyhow.

My Dilemma

Historically, over time, you can see that most stocks will decline after an earnings report.   However, this is where I went wrong on my last AAPL purchase.   AFTER the last earnings report is when AAPL started to skyrocket.

So, what do I do THIS time?  Do I hold through earnings or do I get out before the earnings report comes out?   What would YOU do?

Scary, isn’t it?  Unpredictable!  Unless you happen to be one of the trading insiders (that I believe do exist)  who work in tandem to push a stock up or down.

But, I am NOT part of that hypothetical group.  Therefore, I have NO idea what is going to happen!

Anyway,  I have to decide soon, because AAPl will report earnings on Tuesday, April 24th 2012 -AFTER the market closes  – or at least that is what I think I read. 🙂

What Would You Do?

If you have any thoughts, now is the time so share them.  Comments are open below

About The Author

You might also enjoy:

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

AAPL Stock Now at 585 Per Share

 

Apple Stock Now At 585 Per Share

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This is truly incredible.  Just about the middle of January, I sold my AAPL stock for $424 per share.

I could never have predicted that just two months later it would be at $585.

Here were my previous posts on this stock:

 

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

Obviously, it can be said that I had no idea what I was talking about.

When the stock was $100 over where I bought it, I thought it couldn’t possibly go any higher.  Now it is nearly $160 per share higher.   I cannot begin to tell you how painful that is!

And it appears to be poised to go even higher.  This is truly incredible!

And I can see why.  Today I was at an AAPL store.  They were incredibly busy.  There were enough people there that the local police station had an officer standing just outside the door to the store.

I am shocked.

I started talking to one of the guys working there about the stock rise.  He said they call can’t believe it either.

He said that he has heard that it may go to $1000 per share.

If I am not mistaken. AAPL has now surpassed Exon as the company with the biggest War chest on the planet.

While I am extremely sad to see that I lost out on the $160 per share gains, I am contemplating a jump back in.

But do NOT listen to me.  You can see from the above articles that I am not good at predictions!

Also, you should obtain professional investing advice before taking any action.  That was said for your protection as well as mine.

Ok, so where do YOU think AAPL is headed and WHY? (comments open below)

It Was An Obvious Mistake To Sell My APPL Stock!

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Today’s date is January 30th 2012  – this is a reference date provided for those who find this post in the future.

On January 21st 2012, I sold my Appl stock and documented by reasons.

At the time of this writing, AAPL stock is trading at:  452.91 per share.  Obviously, I misjudged the situation.

I sold at around $424 a share.  I ditched the stock right before the Earnings report came out.

I have read that more times than naught, a stock will decline after earnings. That was one of my justifications give in the previous AAPL stock post.

I expected that even if there was a sudden increase after earnings that there would be a whiplash decline within a few days.

Sadly for me, I was mistaken.  It looks like AAPL is in a definite rise.  And I have missed out on a nice gain.

Theoretically speaking I have ‘lost’  almost $20 per share by jumping out.

I believe that I read analysts expect AAPL to go above $550 a share.  Of course, you cannot put much stock in that (pun intended)

Analysts are often wrong and even if they are correct, the amount of time before it reaches that height could vary significantly from what would be reasonable.  One day AAPL may very well exceed $550 per share, but we don’t know WHEN that will be!

So, my little folly lends more credence to the ‘buy and hold’ philosophy.  But, after living through the huge decline in stock prices back in 2007 / 2008  I just can’t put much faith in ‘Buy and Hold’ anymore.

On the other hand, there will be plenty of experts who will be willing to bash me for this kind of logic.  Let them!  It’s my money and my loss or gain.

There is much risk in investing.  You have to make your own choices.  I am by no means an investment expert.  You should always consult the professionals of your choosing before making any investment decisions.

I hope I make better decisions in the future.  But at the very least, I gained on my trade.  It’s just that I could have nearly doubled that gain, had I held until today!

No one can accurately predict short term moves in the market.   Let the investor be ware!

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Why I Sold My Apple Stock Yesterday…

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Today’s date is January 21st 2012. (Saturday).

This post speaks in general terms and does not seek to offer financial advice. For questions about your unique situation, please consult with the appropriate professional. Invest at your own risk, always.

On Friday, January 20th I sold all shares I was holding of Apple stock.

I took advantage of the Santa Clause effect and the January effect.

I bought in just a few days before Christmas.

I got in somewhere around $391 per share and sold it last Thursday, then bought again on last Friday.

This Friday (yesterday the 20th of January) I sold the stock and will stay out if until after earnings.

The price I sold at was somewhere around $424 per share.

There are a few factors that I considered.

1. The January effect is known to end around mid January.

2. There were a number of tech stocks that were delivering less-than-expected earnings reports this week.

3. Apple’s earning report is on Tuesday, January 24th after the bell.

4. Generally speaking, it is not a good idea to hold through an earnings report – however, sometimes it really pays to do so.

5.  On Thursday, the market had a positive day overall but Apple lost a little and it did so on heavier than ‘normal’ volume.

6.  Appl had hit a high and appeared to be unable to push beyond it.

7.  It started to Fall on Friday.   After I got out it feel another 4 dollars beyond the 3 per share it had already fallen when I exited.

These are my reasons for getting out of Appl.  Of course, I did not know it would fall further on Friday, but with the exception of that, the other points are reasonable.

Now, I am by no means an expert investor.  This trade worked out for me, but not all trades do.

I hope that I have become wiser by making a number of trades over the last several years.

Many investors would not agree with what I have done.  Some do not agree with jumping in and out of the market at all.

I trade on my retirement IRAs so I don’t have to worry about recording all the gains and losses for tax purposes.  On a taxable account, you do need to worry about this.

Again, you should consult with your investment advisor before making any trades and you should understand all risks involved.

Eventually, I would like to reach the point where I can just make money by writing covered calls.  This is what I understand has let to the huge success of Berkshire Hathaway.  As I understand it, it is not the long term buy and hold strategy but rather the writing of covered calls (which basically amounts to writing insurance for other investors)  is what has led to the huge success of that company.  Disclaimer:  I could be very wrong about that, but that is what I believe based on ‘hearing’ a few things here and there.  So you cannot trust that I am correct on on this matter.  As always do your own research!

Another disclaimer:  I will probably buy Appl stock again in the near future.

Update: Here is how this all turned out!  Was I right or wrong? 

This is what I have to say about my latest trade.   If you have comments, thoughts, ideas or criticisms, please leave them below:

 

Big Stock Investor Guy Actually Sells Insurance?

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I won’t list his actual name because I am not trying to cash in on someone’s name recognition. Although there are plenty of bloggers who would do that.  As this blog becomes more popular I am keenly interested in seeing it grow on its own merits.

Anyway,  this guy is relatively famous for the ‘buy and hold’ strategy.  Therefore, you always hear people using his name when they discuss ‘buy and hold’ – particularly when they are interested in having YOU ‘buy and hold’.

It was very interesting for me, however, when I came across a rather obscure piece of information about this man’s actual investment strategy.

Yes, he does ‘buy and hold’ but as far as I can surmise – perhaps poorly or not – it appears that he ACTUALLY makes his money by selling insurance on those stocks.

In the stock investing world, these are known as ‘covered calls’.   Basically, you sell someone the right to buy stock at a certain price for a certain period of time.  When that time is up, if they have not exercised that right to buy your shares, they lose that right.  But YOU get to keep the money.

This is basically selling insurance.  Feel free to correct me if you think I am wrong about that.

Therefore, I have concluded that this great stock investor actually made a lot of money ‘selling insurance’.  Perhaps he made a LOT more from these covered calls than he made on the buying and selling of actual stocks themselves.

So,  how does this relate to human nature?

Simple.  Clearly, many people never bother to look beyond the surface to try and surmise what is really going on.

When you do, you begin to discover ‘whole new worlds’, so to speak, about what is really going on.

This is why we must use our brain.  We really need to think about things from many angles.  We may not always be right, but it seems to me that we will learn and probably gain a lot more than someone who never looks beyond the surface.

If this man is hailed as one of the greatest investors of all time and he is really making a lot of his money from covered calls – that does alter your perception about how to play the stock market, right?

An important concept?

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Stock Market Bubbles And Greed

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The problem with the stock market is the same problem in every other investment area, including Real Estate and Commodities. There are bubbles.

There were bubbles in the 1600’s when the Dutch Stock Market was way overbought on tulips. The bubble was huge and many people sold their possessions to get in. In the end, the bubble burst and the panic set in. Selling was fast and furious and fortunes were lost.

This is the cycle that seems to repeat itself over and over again. The patterns can be big and obvious, like the above tulip situation, or they can be less obvious, as in the daily fluctuations in stocks. Aren’t they just mini bubbles of demand after all?

So the problem is that when things are going up, everyone wants in. Some people will sell and make a profit before the bubble bursts. Others will miss their chance and either have to sell on the way down and hopefully not lose everything, OR they will not get the memo that things are falling apart and will lose a lot.

So, if you want to be a successful investor, then you need to understand and know how to take advantage of bubbles.

Someone is going to profit and someone is going to lose. This is similar to gambling of course. Players (investors) are relying on their skill to play a bubble properly. But no one can predict it out with absolute accuracy every time. Unless of course, they are controlling the bubble, but that is a different story.

This is the human nature part.  Obviously, the real value of tulips, if there is such a thing, doesn’t really change.  Instead, it is the way that humans treat their value that changes.  Greed is an aspect of human nature.  If you want to win in the environment of bubbles, you need to understand this nature to a greater, not lesser degree.   Tricky?  You bet it is!

Perhaps it is better to try and be spiritually wise than to gamble with material possessions or money?   You tell me.  Gordon Gecko says, “Greed is good”.  No one accuses him of being a good guy though.  What are your thoughts?

NOTE: this post speaks in general terms and you should seek out professional advice (or help) before taking any risks.

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Why AGU Stock?

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Disclaimer:  This is NOT investment advice.  This is merely a collection of layman thoughts.  If you need investment advice, seek it from a qualified and licensed professional. Investing in stocks involves SUBSTANTIAL risks.

Today  Mon. August 1st 2011.  I purchased AGU stock  at about approximately 87.93  per share.  I say approximately because there was more than one transaction and the price averages out to slightly less than that I believe.

At any rate.  AGU will have it’s earnings report on Wednesday.

I suspect that they may show results that top analysts expectations but I cannot be certain that will be the case.

I also understand that this may not have been the best time to invest.   Congress is still waffling on the debt ceiling being raised.

As of this writing, the bill passed the House and is going to the Senate this very evening.

If the Senate does not vote to raise the ceiling, that COULD mean that there will be a market drop in the morning.  This could be potentially bad for me.

On the other hand, if the Senate does pass the bill tonight, the market could react positively in the morning.  In that case, I may be tempted to dump my stock and take the profits.

This is my basic plan.  Do not follow my plan.  I take excessive risks.  I do so because I choose to.

Now, it will be interesting to see what happens in the morning, won’t it.

You know it is funny, a lot of people talk about this ‘buy and hold’ strategy.  Big institutions in particularly want you to think that way.  Why?  Could it be that they cannot maneuver in and out of a stock as quickly as an individual investor???  HMMM>>>  I wonder… ??

Many people like to bring up Warren Buffet when discussing ‘buy and hold’.   I read and I cannot and have not verified this little tidbit that ‘they’ may be leaving out.  However, it is my understanding that yes, Mr. Buffet does ‘buy and hold’  but he also writes covered calls on the stocks he is holding.  In short, he sells ‘insurance’ to other investors.

Again, I am not at all sure that this is true, but it is what I read / understood from an unverified source.  If true, perhaps that is the ‘real secret’ to the ‘buy and hold’ strategy.

If you have thoughts, ideas or comments, please leave them below.

 

 

 

 

NFLX Stock – I Took A Beating Today!

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I was bashed in the head with the sudden fall of NFLX today – July 18th 2011.  Ouch.  that hurt.  The day started out with a 10 dollar dip and only recovered slightly to an almost 8$ per share dip by the close.  The worst point was $12 per share off.  Double OUCH!

I bought it on Friday at 285 and some change.   OUCH!   I guess a couple of things. One is that  Investors pulled back today because of the negativity surrounding the debt debates in Washington.

Everyone knows they will increase the debt ceiling but negative NEWS is, well, negative NEWS.  And NEWS drives the market.

Also AAPL went up today  about $8 per share.  This is because earnings will be reported tomorrow and it is very likely that AAPL will bash through analysts estimates once again.  I should have put my money there on Friday.

That is probably where at least some of the money that came out of NFLX went today.   But NFLX has it’s own report due on the 21st which is only a few days away.  Will it shoot past where I bought it at?  I sure hope so!

Also, some money should be coming out of GOOG stock now that their earnings is a few days past.   But some of that money probably went into AAPL today too.   Aargh.  I should have seen this last week.  I know that I THOUGHT about it, but it appears I did not pay heed to my own sensibilities.

Ok, so we will see what happens in the next couple of days.  I certainly hope my choices on Friday can be redeemed but we will see.

Note: I am NOT a financial advisor and you should not take any of this as any kind of stock advice.  I am just writing my ramblings abut the market and I probably do not have a clue about what I am talking.  So do not listen to me!

Of course, no one has a crystal ball.  Life sure would be easier if I did.  But alas….

AAPL will probably bound upwards past earnings which is almost sure to be stellar.  Again, I dropped the ball there – additional lamentation!

I feel said for missed opportunity.  Someone the other day asked if I ever considered options.  My reply was that I do not even think I am good enough at trading without options.   It would be dangerous for me to get involved with them at this point.  Besides I don’t like to lose more.

Gaining more is always fun,  but losing more is, well, NEVER fun.   I’ll take it slow and easy and to it my way.  I do not short much either.   I am still trying to figure out how to invest the straightforward way.   Stocks rise and they fall.  And there have been bubbles since probably before the Tulip debacle in the 1600s.

Bubble after bubble after bubble. I would suggest that the prudent investor understands bubbles well.  Then there is gold.  Wow!  $1600 per ounce?   I sold my only gold coin about 8 years ago for a measly $130 or $330 or something like that.  I think I actually lost a few dollars on it!   LOL.  what I didn’t know.

One thing I do believe though.  I cannot invest in total garbage.  If a company cannot even show a profit, I just do not want to waste my time on it.  I know there are ‘speculators’ out there who just wait for that dog to get some attention from bigger investors.  I just cannot do it that way.  Some people wait a few years for that to happen.

No margin for me either.  Just don’t want any part of that!   To lose more than you have is, well, it has to be a BAD feeling.   Stock investing is unsavory in the first place.  But what else do you do when there is nothing else available or quite as liquid?

It is a tough world out there and the Stock market is no exception.  Yes, some do very well.  Experience and continued learning MIGHT be the path forward.

ON the other hand.  I do not want to get so wrapped up in it that it becomes my life.   I have other wishes and dreams.  Some are quite spiritual in nature.  IN the end, we don’t take any money with us.  It is temporary and it is best not to lose sight of that factoid.

I hope you are paying attention.  When I think of some of the Wall Street Bad Guys –  you know they must be thinking that they are extremely lucky to have gotten away with what they have.  That has to make some of them nervous and uncomfortable.  I do not want to wear those shoes.  I want to look up at the stars at night and have a sense of wonder and awareness.  If you ‘sell your soul’ for money, you might be left with a kind of bad feeling.  Who wants that?

So, that is it on my take on NFLX stock today.   AAPL is doing well this last week or so.  I missed the ball!   Too late now, I would say.   Why do I make such silly mistakes?   There must be a lesson in there for me somehow.  That is how I look at it.

Rambling must stop now!   Thanks – until next time!

* remember, I am not an investment adviser.  Do not take anything I talk about as a recommendation, it is not.  You have to do your own research and make your own choices.  Get professional help from professionals!  (If you can find one that is! )

 

HNZ Stock – Getting Out Today!

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At the time of this writing I am in HNZ stock but I will likely get out by the end of today.

HNZ looked good on paper. The chart was ok, but it did appear that it might have been slightly overbought last week.

Nothing exciting has happened with the stock and it does appear that I may be facing a slight loss if I sell by the end of the day.

There is no way to know if their earnings report tomorrow morning will exceed expectations and frankly that will be the only hope of upward movement for a while at least.

Since there is no way to know, it is best to get out in my opinion. Because anything less than exceeding expectations is going to cause a short term exodus (most likely) But nothing is certain in the stock market!

I was foolish enough to hold WSM through earnings and received a good smack down as a result. I hope that I don’t have a special need to learn that lesson again anytime soon.

WSM hit 39.00 today and appears to be stabilizing there, which makes sense when looking at the chart. But man, that was a big loss for me. Like I said, I hope I don’t have a special need to learn that terrible lesson again – anytime soon!

I’ve heard that it is a statistically losing game for the shorter term investor to hold through earnings. That appears to be true.

Disclaimer, I am currently in both stocks mentioned – but could hop out at any time.

This is for general information only. If you need investing advice, consult a professional!

I wouldn’t touch either one of these stocks at the moment if I were on the outside looking in.

Of course, when you do hold through earnings as a short term investor, you are looking for the immediate buying spree that happens after a company exceeds expectations. But anything less, and I do mean in any area of the report, including end of year predictions, and you could be headed for trouble.

It works sometimes, but if you are not very confident that the stock will exceed in all areas, it might be best to think twice about holding it.

What will happen with gold? I have no idea, but if I had to guess, I think the gold bubble might burst soon. – Again, don’t quote me on that, it is just suspicion. It could easily go the other way. Nothing is certain, that is for sure!