investing

AAPL Stock Commentary – Pre Market June 26th 2012.

June 25, 2012 by Dave

Disclosure: I frequently have positions in this stock. I could own shares at the time you read this post. Investing is risky and you can lose money. Do not look here for investing advice. Do your own homework and make your own decisions or hire a professional to do that for you.

The Apple Falls

So AAPL took a little tumble today, losing about 11 1/3 dollars per share.

AAPL has failed to peirce the $600 per share mark since right after the last earnings report!

Speaking of which, the next earnings report is rumored to be set for: July 24th 2011.

If it follows previous patterns, there could be a rise as early as next week.

But don’t get your hopes up. All the sour news out of Europe, while good for the dollar, is bad for the stock market.

There will be a lot of pressure holding the overall market down and throttling back on the power of the big AAPL as well.

Too bad so sad. I certainly would not short this stock though.

On the other hand, it could be risky. If the market decides to take a bigger tumble, dollars could be lost.

Earnings Report

As mentioned a moment ago, the next Earnings report will be out on July 24th. If you have been reading my posts on AAPL, you know that I like to play on Earnings.

Generally speaking, I like to sell a stock before the Earnings Report comes out.

However, the last two ERs for AAPL saw the stock rise sharply the day after the earnings report came out.

The big question is: Will it happen again?

And the answer is: No one knows!

As I recall there were a ton of doubters last time. Going against my normal play, I went ahead and held AAPL and it went up about $50 per share the next days after the report.

However, I did not sell on time and the Stock took a sharp tumble down to the $530 level.

Seeing that this coincided with a support level for the S&P around the 1300 mark, I decided to hold the stock.

Sure enough, it came back up. And I was delighted to sell it for a few dollars / share profit.

What’s next? Hard to tell! There could be a rebound tomorrow or the market could continue its downward move based on the fact that there is a lot of bad news out there.

On the other hand, there could be rebound action tomorrow as well.

In fact, the market as measured by the S&P500 did not stay on its lows yesterday. It came back from lower depths.

That could make a nice prelude to a bump up tomorrow. But, we can never be sure about these things, can one?

Comments? Thoughts? Leave them below.

My Latest Stock Market Move – AAPL

April 23, 2012 by Dave

Disclosure on Stock Ownership

Before I tell you what I have done, I need to give you the standard disclosure necessary anytime you talk about your personal stock investments! 🙂

So, my disclosure: By the time you read this: I am invested, will be invested or have been invested in this stock. I have a personal interest in seeing it do well.

You should not invest based on anything you read here or on this site!

You should seek professional investment advice before investing in anything of any kind. Investing is risky (sort of like gambling, but not exactly) – Don’t waste your money…

I Know Little About Investing – So Watch Out!

By the way, I am an amateur investor, I don’t even use options which is what I have been told I should be doing. But I don’t know much about them, so you can ‘educate’ us in the comment section below this post. Looking forward to hearing from you!

Ok, so Friday – That would be Friday April 20th, 2012, within the last 30 minutes of trading for the day, I purchased some AAPl (Apple) stock.

Why did I wait until the last 30 minutes? Because the stock was being pressed down all day long by more experienced and more organized traders (just my opinion, not necessarily fact!) and I wanted to get the best price. So I waited.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me and I’m too lazy to look them up right now. But, I got in around $572 . per share.

My Previous AAPL ‘Disaster’

My previous trade with AAPL: Well, ok, it was still a profitable trade, but I missed out on well over a hundred dollars per share (YES! You read that right). You can read about this minor tragedy here:

https://www.allthingspondered.com/4541/apple-stock-now-at-585-per-share/

Talk about painful. OUCH! 🙂

So Why Now?

After such a painful experience, you would think I would just stay away from the stock, right? Well, that is how I reacted for a long time. I didn’t want to believe it would keep going up and up – but it did!

And I was hoping for some type of correction. But, that did not happen. After AAPL topped $600 per share, I knew that it wasn’t going down anytime soon.

That brings us up to today:

Low and behold it is now time for the next earnings report.

This is the Play that I like the most. I like to play into earnings. AAPL is ‘expected’ to have a $9 + something per share earnings report after the market close on Tuesday. Rumor is that the real number will be about 20% higher.

However, you can’t trust rumors can you? So, it is a risk. Anything can happen.

But I’ve decided to play it anyhow.

My Dilemma

Historically, over time, you can see that most stocks will decline after an earnings report. However, this is where I went wrong on my last AAPL purchase. AFTER the last earnings report is when AAPL started to skyrocket.

So, what do I do THIS time? Do I hold through earnings or do I get out before the earnings report comes out? What would YOU do?

Scary, isn’t it? Unpredictable! Unless you happen to be one of the trading insiders (that I believe do exist) who work in tandem to push a stock up or down.

But, I am NOT part of that hypothetical group. Therefore, I have NO idea what is going to happen!

Anyway, I have to decide soon, because AAPl will report earnings on Tuesday, April 24th 2012 -AFTER the market closes – or at least that is what I think I read. 🙂

What Would You Do?

If you have any thoughts, now is the time so share them. Comments are open below

About The Author

It Was An Obvious Mistake To Sell My APPL Stock!

January 30, 2012 by Dave

Today’s date is January 30th 2012 – this is a reference date provided for those who find this post in the future.

On January 21st 2012, I sold my Appl stock and documented by reasons.

At the time of this writing, AAPL stock is trading at: 452.91 per share. Obviously, I misjudged the situation.

I sold at around $424 a share. I ditched the stock right before the Earnings report came out.

I have read that more times than naught, a stock will decline after earnings. That was one of my justifications give in the previous AAPL stock post.

I expected that even if there was a sudden increase after earnings that there would be a whiplash decline within a few days.

Sadly for me, I was mistaken. It looks like AAPL is in a definite rise. And I have missed out on a nice gain.

Theoretically speaking I have ‘lost’ almost $20 per share by jumping out.

I believe that I read analysts expect AAPL to go above $550 a share. Of course, you cannot put much stock in that (pun intended)

Analysts are often wrong and even if they are correct, the amount of time before it reaches that height could vary significantly from what would be reasonable. One day AAPL may very well exceed $550 per share, but we don’t know WHEN that will be!

So, my little folly lends more credence to the ‘buy and hold’ philosophy. But, after living through the huge decline in stock prices back in 2007 / 2008 I just can’t put much faith in ‘Buy and Hold’ anymore.

On the other hand, there will be plenty of experts who will be willing to bash me for this kind of logic. Let them! It’s my money and my loss or gain.

There is much risk in investing. You have to make your own choices. I am by no means an investment expert. You should always consult the professionals of your choosing before making any investment decisions.

I hope I make better decisions in the future. But at the very least, I gained on my trade. It’s just that I could have nearly doubled that gain, had I held until today!

No one can accurately predict short term moves in the market. Let the investor be ware!

About the Author

If you found this post interesting, share it with others:

Why AGU Stock?

August 1, 2011 by Dave

Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This is merely a collection of layman thoughts. If you need investment advice, seek it from a qualified and licensed professional. Investing in stocks involves SUBSTANTIAL risks.

Today Mon. August 1st 2011. I purchased AGU stock at about approximately 87.93 per share. I say approximately because there was more than one transaction and the price averages out to slightly less than that I believe.

At any rate. AGU will have it’s earnings report on Wednesday.

I suspect that they may show results that top analysts expectations but I cannot be certain that will be the case.

I also understand that this may not have been the best time to invest. Congress is still waffling on the debt ceiling being raised.

As of this writing, the bill passed the House and is going to the Senate this very evening.

If the Senate does not vote to raise the ceiling, that COULD mean that there will be a market drop in the morning. This could be potentially bad for me.

On the other hand, if the Senate does pass the bill tonight, the market could react positively in the morning. In that case, I may be tempted to dump my stock and take the profits.

This is my basic plan. Do not follow my plan. I take excessive risks. I do so because I choose to.

Now, it will be interesting to see what happens in the morning, won’t it.

You know it is funny, a lot of people talk about this ‘buy and hold’ strategy. Big institutions in particularly want you to think that way. Why? Could it be that they cannot maneuver in and out of a stock as quickly as an individual investor??? HMMM>>> I wonder… ??

Many people like to bring up Warren Buffet when discussing ‘buy and hold’. I read and I cannot and have not verified this little tidbit that ‘they’ may be leaving out. However, it is my understanding that yes, Mr. Buffet does ‘buy and hold’ but he also writes covered calls on the stocks he is holding. In short, he sells ‘insurance’ to other investors.

Again, I am not at all sure that this is true, but it is what I read / understood from an unverified source. If true, perhaps that is the ‘real secret’ to the ‘buy and hold’ strategy.

If you have thoughts, ideas or comments, please leave them below.

Should You Trust Your Stock Broker?

May 13, 2011 by Dave

That title is sure to make some people smile. I suppose if you really know absolutely nothing about stocks and investing, you are a prime candidate to be taken advantage of. The problem is that there is a learning curve and you are probably going to lose money in the beginning no matter which way you go.

Stock brokers can charge an awful lot in commissions. When you compare that to do it yourself accounts where you might pay 7-9 dollars for a trade, the savings is significant. I once asked what it would cost to make the same trade through a broker. Just by putting the middle man in the picture, I think the commission was around $150 or something like that.

Obviously, I would much rather pay the 9 bucks than $150! When you consider that there are going to be two trades, one when you buy and one when you sell, the savings are double!

Ok, to answer the question at hand. The only way you know you can trust your broker is if he is making money for you. If not, then what is the point?

Many brokers are simply looking for their next trade. It is to their benefit to have you trade as often as possible because each transaction signifies a commission for them. If you put yourself in their shoes, this only makes sense. We all need to put food on the table.

Since I have been making my own trading decisions for a long time now and I have enjoyed the savings, I would never use a high commission broker. The amount of money I save is significant.

However, you might be scared to death to pick your own stocks and I can understand that. You have a lot of questions. When do I get in? When do I get out? It is not an easy game for the novice and you can easily get your clock cleaned. I am not so sure you would do any better with a broker. If your broker was so good at picking stocks, why would he be working as a broker? He could be independent and trade for himself, right? He would not need to work as a broker.

One thing is for sure. If you have already been using a broker and he is making a lot of money for you, then why not continue? It is hard to argue with profit! But if the broker is losing money for you, then maybe you should think twice.

The game of stock market investing is a tricky one. If you could find a mentor who is willing to teach you, that might be best.

I can give you one clue however. The things that you think should be driving a stock’s price up and down probably are not what actually does. Anyone who is ‘in the game’ understands that last statement intimately. If you didn’t get it, then it is almost a certainty that you have a lot to learn!

Be careful when playing with stocks, you can really get your butt kicked. Should you trust your broker? Only if using a broker is profitable for you. That is the best measure.

If you have questions or thoughts to share, please use the comment box below.

About The Author:

Forex Investment Fund Investing

November 1, 2010 by GuestPoster

There are many ways to play the forex market. One of those ways is to invest in a forex investment fund. If you are a serious investor, this enormous market is hard to resist. It happens to be the largest financial market, bigger than all of the stock markets combined. That is a big pie that most investors and traders want to get in on.

The forex market used to be only accessible by large institutional investors like commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds and central banks. With the advent of the internet, this gigantic market has finally opened up to the average investor and day trader.

The only thing with this market is that you have to be a day trader to become actively involved with it. It runs 24 hours a day, 5 and a half days a week. And because of the large leverage involved, you just can’t let your money sitting there without constant monitoring or you could lose your entire trading capital.

But with forex investment funds, you can take part in this big financial market without becoming a day trader. You simply let a professional currency trader manage your money for you.

It’s not unlike a mutual fund. You open up an account, place your money on deposit, and you authorize the forex broker to trade for you. If you have the net worth, you can invest in a forex hedge fund. For small investors, you can easily open up a forex managed account.

The great advantage to forex funds is that you get to take advantage of all of the resources, talents and expertise of the professional money manager. Not only do you get the benefit of years of currency trading experience, you also get the trading research and analysis that a large firm can offer.

You also take advantage of the unique forex trading strategies that they may use to do their trades. Many of them keep their strategies a secret for obvious reasons. In some cases, the broker has invested millions of dollars into their system.

With forex investment funds, you get the best of both worlds. You can play this enormous market and profit making opportunity, without becoming a day trader.

If you go this route, you should consider diversifying your forex investment across many managed funds. This way, you can see which ones perform the best. After a given period of time, you can double down on the guys that outperform the other accounts.