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All Things Pondered Here

Pondering Many Things....

aapl stock

AAPL Stock Commentary – Pre Market 5-24-2012

May 24, 2012 by Dave

AAPl Premarket Stock Prediction 4-24-1012I am writing this post (rather hastily) to get it out before the market opens on 5-24-2012.

Disclosure:  I have a material interest in this stock – Ticker symbol AAPL.  I currently own it.   And I frequently trade it.    Do not invest based on information you see here. Do your own research and work with licensed professionals who can help advise you.   No such credentialed people blog here!   🙂

What has been happening with this Stock since the last time I wrote about AAPL?

As you can see from that previous post it was to my advantage to hold onto that stock through the earnings report.  That is something I typically would not do.  However, when the quarterly report for January 2012 came out, the stock moved up $185 points from where I sold it.

Before you ask:  YES!  That was a major disappointment and horror for me.  It was also a little bit painful at times.

I decided to hold through the April 2012 report, partly because of the sting from the previous experience.

 

AAPL is Busy

Also, I happened to drop by an AAPL store in late March / Early April to add some memory to my MBP.

I was astounded at how busy they were!   In fact, they were so busy that they had a local police officer at the door.    Side not:  I do not believe any retail store has a right to have a tax payer funded officer issued exclusively to them – but I digress.

The fact remains that store was busier than I had ever seen it before.

That made me wonder if they weren’t going to have a stellar report in April.   – Obviously, they did.

 

History Did NOT Repeat Itself

Well, actually history DID repeat itself.  After hours trading post earnings in April saw the stock rise about $50 per share!  I was very glad I held on to it.

However, the big $185 gain run up that happened in January was not to be repeated.  (Sadly enough).

Instead, within a few days the stock began to dip down.

APPL Falls in Value

This is where I made a tactical mistake.   I wasn’t paying a great deal of attention and the stock sunk below my buy price.

I bought at $572 per share.

In retrospect, I should have cashed in on that nice gain which put the stock in the 600s.   But I did not.   I was waiting to see if another stellar ascent was going to happen.

However, the stock kept falling and falling and falling.

The general trend of the market was down during this period -as you probably know.

It is generally difficult, even for a good stock to rise, when the trend of the overall market is down.

So, not only did I NOT cash in on my gain,  I was now losing money!

 

Where Did It Stop?

As the market kept falling, so did APPL.  It fell all the way to $530 and below.

The S&P was now testing the all crucial 1300 level and I was worried, but I held on to my seat and didn’t ditch the stock. This was just a few days ago!

I had some confidence that even if not in the immediate future, that AAPL would rise again.

This is one advantage to investing in a powerful company – even if you screw up on your trades, there is a greater chance of recovery.   But, one should NEVER bank on that! As it could still go the other way.  It just seems to me the safety factor is a little bigger.
Market Dynamics

The S&P did dip below the 1300 level.  But it found support there.  In the next few days,  AAPl  rose as the market started to rebound.

There was even a market ‘down’ day where AAPL did not budge much.   I often view that as confirmation of the strength of an upward move.

So as the S&P dipped below 1300 so AAPL dipped briefly below $530 per share!

As the S&P found support around 1300 and started to rise, so too AAPL found support around $530 and started to rise!

I was happy.    Currently, as of close yesterday AAPL is at around $570  – Only $2  below my buyin price!

That is quite a relief after falling to $530.

 

What Now for AAPL?

As I write this, the market will open in less than 1 hour.   I just checked the NASDAQ site and premarket trading shows AAPL to be up.

It is only up about $1.95  which is not much (less than 1/2 percent) .   Update – I refreshed ten minutes later and it was up about  $2.50  in premarket trade.  (Still not much – but better than the alternative! 🙂 )

Because of the momentum of the market and the strength of APPL  though, I will predict a nice pop up on the open.

And hopefully that will continue throughout the day.

Then, I hope that I will carefully monitor this time to make sure that I don’t let it slip below my buying price of about $572.

The hope is that it will find its legs and rise (far) above $600 again.

Again, this is all speculation and a guess.   So don’t you dare invest on what you read here.   As you can surmise from this article, I have made mistakes (costly ones) in the past and will do so again in the future.

However, we will see how this will play out soon enough.

I wanted to post this before the market opens today.  And it looks like I’ve finished about 40 minutes before the market opens.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see if my guess is correct today.

What do you think about this stock going forward?    Leave your comments below please.

About The Author

Other related articles:

Filed Under: Money, stock investing, stocks Tagged With: aapl stock, aapl stock investing, aapl stock opinion, appl sotck commentary

Update On My AAPL Stock Trade

April 24, 2012 by Dave

I’m writing this moments before the market opens on Tuesday April 24th 2012.

Disclosure:  I have a vested interest in this stock.  Investing is risky and you should not invest your money based on anything you read here.  Consult a competent professional before investing any money in any type of investment.

Ok, so you can read what I had to say about AAPL yesterday – which I bought a few days ago on Friday.

My intention is to sell some time today, on Tuesday.

I am doing this for the Earnings play.

Yesterday the stock market as a whole dropped on worries about the Euro and speculation about the break up of the currency.   Which probably won’t happen for a long time, if ever.

But news and fear drives the stock market.

However, true to my thoughts.  Appl barely moved below its price on Friday.

My theory is that many players will be lining up to play AAPL today.

The price of the stock should move up drastically today.  And I will sell sometime today.

However, I could be wrong, it has certainly happened before.

This is my guess about what is going to happen today.

However, I could change my plan, to be inline with changes as necessary.

Ok, we will see how it goes today.  Comment below as you wish.

Again, do not invest based on anything you read on this blog.  I’m an amateur at best and investing is always a risk.

AFTER HOURS UPDATE

I just checked,  AAPL is up $30 in After Hours Trading.

Well, I said above that I reserved the right to change my mind as the day went on and that is what I did.

I held on to the AAPL Stock into earnings and DID NOT sell today.

WHY??

The stock was behaving in a way that I did not expect.  It was down for the day.   And on top of that volume was pretty much even with the 10 day average.

This meant that the ‘smart money’  was staying put and that got me to wondering.   ( Not that I’m saying there is insider information floating around with those institutional investors or anything like that… )

Just saying the ‘smart money’ must have suspected something.   Therefore, I made the decision to stay in.

After reading all the naysayers on twitter, I have to admit that I got a bit nervous.

However, when earnings were announced it was clear that the naysayers were mistaken.

So, I held on to AAPL this time and if there is another meteoric rise like last time (after the last earnings report), then I will be glad that I did!

You can comment below…

About The Author

You might also enjoy:

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

AAPL Stock Now at 585 Per Share

 

 

Filed Under: stock investing, stocks Tagged With: aapl stock, aapl stock investing, apple stock, stock investing

My Latest Stock Market Move – AAPL

April 23, 2012 by Dave

AAPl-Stock-Bull-Investing
Disclosure on Stock Ownership

Before I tell you what I have done, I need to give you the standard disclosure necessary anytime you talk about your personal stock investments!   🙂

So, my disclosure:  By the time you read this:  I am invested, will be invested or have been invested in this stock.  I have a personal interest in seeing it do well.

You should not invest based on anything you read here or on this site!

You should seek professional investment advice before investing in anything of any kind.   Investing is risky (sort of like gambling, but not exactly) – Don’t waste your money…

I Know Little About Investing – So Watch Out!

By the way, I am an amateur investor, I don’t even use options which is what I have been told I should be doing.  But I don’t know much about them, so you can ‘educate’ us in the comment section below this post.  Looking forward to hearing from you!

Ok, so Friday  – That would be Friday April 20th, 2012,  within the last 30 minutes of trading for the day,  I purchased some AAPl (Apple) stock.

Why did I wait until the last 30 minutes?  Because the stock was being pressed down all day long by more experienced and more organized traders (just my opinion, not necessarily fact!) and I wanted to get the best price.  So I waited.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me and I’m too lazy to look them up right now.  But, I got in around $572 . per share.

My Previous AAPL ‘Disaster’ 

My previous trade with AAPL:   Well, ok, it was still a profitable trade, but I missed out on well over a hundred dollars per share (YES! You read that right).  You can read about this minor tragedy here:

https://www.allthingspondered.com/4541/apple-stock-now-at-585-per-share/

Talk about painful.  OUCH!   🙂

So Why Now?

After such a painful experience, you would think I would just stay away from the stock, right?   Well, that is how I reacted for a long time.   I didn’t want to believe it would keep going up and up – but it did!

And I was hoping for some type of correction.  But, that did not happen.    After AAPL topped $600 per share, I knew that it wasn’t going down anytime soon.

That brings us up to today:

Low and behold it is now time for the next earnings report.

This is the Play that I like the most.  I like to play into earnings.   AAPL is ‘expected’ to have a $9 + something per share earnings report after the market close on Tuesday.  Rumor is that the real number will be about 20% higher.

However, you can’t trust rumors can you?    So,  it is a risk.  Anything can happen.

But I’ve decided to play it anyhow.

My Dilemma

Historically, over time, you can see that most stocks will decline after an earnings report.   However, this is where I went wrong on my last AAPL purchase.   AFTER the last earnings report is when AAPL started to skyrocket.

So, what do I do THIS time?  Do I hold through earnings or do I get out before the earnings report comes out?   What would YOU do?

Scary, isn’t it?  Unpredictable!  Unless you happen to be one of the trading insiders (that I believe do exist)  who work in tandem to push a stock up or down.

But, I am NOT part of that hypothetical group.  Therefore, I have NO idea what is going to happen!

Anyway,  I have to decide soon, because AAPl will report earnings on Tuesday, April 24th 2012 -AFTER the market closes  – or at least that is what I think I read. 🙂

What Would You Do?

If you have any thoughts, now is the time so share them.  Comments are open below

About The Author

You might also enjoy:

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

AAPL Stock Now at 585 Per Share

 

Filed Under: stock investing Tagged With: AAPL investing, aapl stock, investing, stock investing, stocks

Apple Stock Now At 585 Per Share

March 16, 2012 by Dave

This is truly incredible.  Just about the middle of January, I sold my AAPL stock for $424 per share.

I could never have predicted that just two months later it would be at $585.

Here were my previous posts on this stock:

 

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

Obviously, it can be said that I had no idea what I was talking about.

When the stock was $100 over where I bought it, I thought it couldn’t possibly go any higher.  Now it is nearly $160 per share higher.   I cannot begin to tell you how painful that is!

And it appears to be poised to go even higher.  This is truly incredible!

And I can see why.  Today I was at an AAPL store.  They were incredibly busy.  There were enough people there that the local police station had an officer standing just outside the door to the store.

I am shocked.

I started talking to one of the guys working there about the stock rise.  He said they call can’t believe it either.

He said that he has heard that it may go to $1000 per share.

If I am not mistaken. AAPL has now surpassed Exon as the company with the biggest War chest on the planet.

While I am extremely sad to see that I lost out on the $160 per share gains, I am contemplating a jump back in.

But do NOT listen to me.  You can see from the above articles that I am not good at predictions!

Also, you should obtain professional investing advice before taking any action.  That was said for your protection as well as mine.

Ok, so where do YOU think AAPL is headed and WHY? (comments open below)

About The Author

Filed Under: stock investing, stocks Tagged With: aapl, aapl stock, apple, stock investing, stocks

It Was An Obvious Mistake To Sell My APPL Stock!

January 30, 2012 by Dave

Today’s date is January 30th 2012  – this is a reference date provided for those who find this post in the future.

On January 21st 2012, I sold my Appl stock and documented by reasons.

At the time of this writing, AAPL stock is trading at:  452.91 per share.  Obviously, I misjudged the situation.

I sold at around $424 a share.  I ditched the stock right before the Earnings report came out.

I have read that more times than naught, a stock will decline after earnings. That was one of my justifications give in the previous AAPL stock post.

I expected that even if there was a sudden increase after earnings that there would be a whiplash decline within a few days.

Sadly for me, I was mistaken.  It looks like AAPL is in a definite rise.  And I have missed out on a nice gain.

Theoretically speaking I have ‘lost’  almost $20 per share by jumping out.

I believe that I read analysts expect AAPL to go above $550 a share.  Of course, you cannot put much stock in that (pun intended)

Analysts are often wrong and even if they are correct, the amount of time before it reaches that height could vary significantly from what would be reasonable.  One day AAPL may very well exceed $550 per share, but we don’t know WHEN that will be!

So, my little folly lends more credence to the ‘buy and hold’ philosophy.  But, after living through the huge decline in stock prices back in 2007 / 2008  I just can’t put much faith in ‘Buy and Hold’ anymore.

On the other hand, there will be plenty of experts who will be willing to bash me for this kind of logic.  Let them!  It’s my money and my loss or gain.

There is much risk in investing.  You have to make your own choices.  I am by no means an investment expert.  You should always consult the professionals of your choosing before making any investment decisions.

I hope I make better decisions in the future.  But at the very least, I gained on my trade.  It’s just that I could have nearly doubled that gain, had I held until today!

No one can accurately predict short term moves in the market.   Let the investor be ware!

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Filed Under: Financial Freedom, stock investing Tagged With: aapl stock, apple stock, investing, investing in stocks, stock investing

Why I Sold My Apple Stock Yesterday…

January 21, 2012 by Dave

Today’s date is January 21st 2012. (Saturday).

This post speaks in general terms and does not seek to offer financial advice. For questions about your unique situation, please consult with the appropriate professional. Invest at your own risk, always.

On Friday, January 20th I sold all shares I was holding of Apple stock.

I took advantage of the Santa Clause effect and the January effect.

I bought in just a few days before Christmas.

I got in somewhere around $391 per share and sold it last Thursday, then bought again on last Friday.

This Friday (yesterday the 20th of January) I sold the stock and will stay out if until after earnings.

The price I sold at was somewhere around $424 per share.

There are a few factors that I considered.

1. The January effect is known to end around mid January.

2. There were a number of tech stocks that were delivering less-than-expected earnings reports this week.

3. Apple’s earning report is on Tuesday, January 24th after the bell.

4. Generally speaking, it is not a good idea to hold through an earnings report – however, sometimes it really pays to do so.

5.  On Thursday, the market had a positive day overall but Apple lost a little and it did so on heavier than ‘normal’ volume.

6.  Appl had hit a high and appeared to be unable to push beyond it.

7.  It started to Fall on Friday.   After I got out it feel another 4 dollars beyond the 3 per share it had already fallen when I exited.

These are my reasons for getting out of Appl.  Of course, I did not know it would fall further on Friday, but with the exception of that, the other points are reasonable.

Now, I am by no means an expert investor.  This trade worked out for me, but not all trades do.

I hope that I have become wiser by making a number of trades over the last several years.

Many investors would not agree with what I have done.  Some do not agree with jumping in and out of the market at all.

I trade on my retirement IRAs so I don’t have to worry about recording all the gains and losses for tax purposes.  On a taxable account, you do need to worry about this.

Again, you should consult with your investment advisor before making any trades and you should understand all risks involved.

Eventually, I would like to reach the point where I can just make money by writing covered calls.  This is what I understand has let to the huge success of Berkshire Hathaway.  As I understand it, it is not the long term buy and hold strategy but rather the writing of covered calls (which basically amounts to writing insurance for other investors)  is what has led to the huge success of that company.  Disclaimer:  I could be very wrong about that, but that is what I believe based on ‘hearing’ a few things here and there.  So you cannot trust that I am correct on on this matter.  As always do your own research!

Another disclaimer:  I will probably buy Appl stock again in the near future.

Update: Here is how this all turned out!  Was I right or wrong? 

This is what I have to say about my latest trade.   If you have comments, thoughts, ideas or criticisms, please leave them below:

About the author

 

Filed Under: stock investing, stocks Tagged With: aapl, aapl stock, apple, apple stock, stock investing

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