I am writing this post (rather hastily) to get it out before the market opens on 5-24-2012.
Disclosure: I have a material interest in this stock – Ticker symbol AAPL. I currently own it. And I frequently trade it. Do not invest based on information you see here. Do your own research and work with licensed professionals who can help advise you. No such credentialed people blog here! 🙂
What has been happening with this Stock since the last time I wrote about AAPL?
As you can see from that previous post it was to my advantage to hold onto that stock through the earnings report. That is something I typically would not do. However, when the quarterly report for January 2012 came out, the stock moved up $185 points from where I sold it.
Before you ask: YES! That was a major disappointment and horror for me. It was also a little bit painful at times.
I decided to hold through the April 2012 report, partly because of the sting from the previous experience.
AAPL is Busy
Also, I happened to drop by an AAPL store in late March / Early April to add some memory to my MBP.
I was astounded at how busy they were! In fact, they were so busy that they had a local police officer at the door. Side not: I do not believe any retail store has a right to have a tax payer funded officer issued exclusively to them – but I digress.
The fact remains that store was busier than I had ever seen it before.
That made me wonder if they weren’t going to have a stellar report in April. – Obviously, they did.
History Did NOT Repeat Itself
Well, actually history DID repeat itself. After hours trading post earnings in April saw the stock rise about $50 per share! I was very glad I held on to it.
However, the big $185 gain run up that happened in January was not to be repeated. (Sadly enough).
Instead, within a few days the stock began to dip down.
APPL Falls in Value
This is where I made a tactical mistake. I wasn’t paying a great deal of attention and the stock sunk below my buy price.
I bought at $572 per share.
In retrospect, I should have cashed in on that nice gain which put the stock in the 600s. But I did not. I was waiting to see if another stellar ascent was going to happen.
However, the stock kept falling and falling and falling.
The general trend of the market was down during this period -as you probably know.
It is generally difficult, even for a good stock to rise, when the trend of the overall market is down.
So, not only did I NOT cash in on my gain, I was now losing money!
Where Did It Stop?
As the market kept falling, so did APPL. It fell all the way to $530 and below.
The S&P was now testing the all crucial 1300 level and I was worried, but I held on to my seat and didn’t ditch the stock. This was just a few days ago!
I had some confidence that even if not in the immediate future, that AAPL would rise again.
This is one advantage to investing in a powerful company – even if you screw up on your trades, there is a greater chance of recovery. But, one should NEVER bank on that! As it could still go the other way. It just seems to me the safety factor is a little bigger.
Market Dynamics
The S&P did dip below the 1300 level. But it found support there. In the next few days, AAPl rose as the market started to rebound.
There was even a market ‘down’ day where AAPL did not budge much. I often view that as confirmation of the strength of an upward move.
So as the S&P dipped below 1300 so AAPL dipped briefly below $530 per share!
As the S&P found support around 1300 and started to rise, so too AAPL found support around $530 and started to rise!
I was happy. Currently, as of close yesterday AAPL is at around $570 – Only $2 below my buyin price!
That is quite a relief after falling to $530.
What Now for AAPL?
As I write this, the market will open in less than 1 hour. I just checked the NASDAQ site and premarket trading shows AAPL to be up.
It is only up about $1.95 which is not much (less than 1/2 percent) . Update – I refreshed ten minutes later and it was up about $2.50 in premarket trade. (Still not much – but better than the alternative! 🙂 )
Because of the momentum of the market and the strength of APPL though, I will predict a nice pop up on the open.
And hopefully that will continue throughout the day.
Then, I hope that I will carefully monitor this time to make sure that I don’t let it slip below my buying price of about $572.
The hope is that it will find its legs and rise (far) above $600 again.
Again, this is all speculation and a guess. So don’t you dare invest on what you read here. As you can surmise from this article, I have made mistakes (costly ones) in the past and will do so again in the future.
However, we will see how this will play out soon enough.
I wanted to post this before the market opens today. And it looks like I’ve finished about 40 minutes before the market opens.
Conclusion
It will be interesting to see if my guess is correct today.
What do you think about this stock going forward? Leave your comments below please.
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