stocks

AAPL Stock Commentary for June 27th 2012

June 27, 2012 by Dave

Disclaimer: I frequently take positions in this stock. Therefore, I have a material interest in it. You should never invest in anything based on what you read on this site. Invest at your own risk and / or get professional advice.

Post Time 9:03 AM New York Time.

AAPL Around $570

So, yesterday saw a small rebound on the markets after the catastrophe the day before. The S&P is hanging just above the 1300 psychological (an therefore important) level.

The market cares less about averages, but people do. Remember you are never investing in a market, you are investing amidst other people. How well you do has a lot to do with how well you understand the underlying psychology of people who are also investing.

Think about people and what they are doing and what they are likely to do when you make your calculations.

Bad News

There is plenty of bad news right now. Cyprus has just asked for loans from the EU banking system. Spain needs to ‘recapitalize’ its banks. Unemployment remains high in the US but is absolutely at ridiculous levels in Spain (about 24%)

Remember that bad news drives people and people drive the market.

But, there is also a subset group (that I suspect is rather large) that is waiting for things to drop too far and then they will start to buy. If it goes well, then others will quickly jump in.

This is the dance that is always taking place.

Under The Dance

Under the quick and fast investors are larger investors that cannot get in and out of positions so quickly. When you have millions or billions invested you cannot afford to jump in and out. Therefore, these large institutional funds have to think longer terms and make their gamble based on what they think will happen longer term.

That’s good for the short term investor because it can provide a baseline of stability. However, investing is always a risk and you must never lose site of that.

Despite the fact that I would have done better in AAPL had I stayed in all of this time after I took a position in 2008, I still prefer to jump in and out. Why? Because I sleep better at night!

And that is worth more than any amount of money. LOL.

If you are suspicious of the Financial system and those who have influence upon it, you might feel the same way.

So What Now?

There are two possibilities (as always). There is not a lot of great news out there as I mentioned. Yesterday, did not show much movement upwards in AAPL – A few sense perhaps. When the rest of the market goes up more than a strong performer, it has to make you wonder.

Will there be another, stronger upward move today? I doubt it!

I’m looking for downward movement. But I am not short. I currently (at the time of this writing) don’t hold a position.

Premarket Stuff

Currently, about 30 minutes or so before market open, AAPL is up about 2.45 in premarket trading.

However, that is not a lot given the size of AAPL stock. But those early birds are hoping for a spike on the open when they may choose to sell.

And sometimes that works out.

While it may pop a little on the open, I think it will fall overall today. Bad news and lackluster performance yesterday are the reasons I think this.

Let’s see what happens. What are your thoughts today? Leave comments below.

About The Author

AAPL Stock Commentary – Pre Market June 26th 2012.

June 25, 2012 by Dave

Disclosure: I frequently have positions in this stock. I could own shares at the time you read this post. Investing is risky and you can lose money. Do not look here for investing advice. Do your own homework and make your own decisions or hire a professional to do that for you.

The Apple Falls

So AAPL took a little tumble today, losing about 11 1/3 dollars per share.

AAPL has failed to peirce the $600 per share mark since right after the last earnings report!

Speaking of which, the next earnings report is rumored to be set for: July 24th 2011.

If it follows previous patterns, there could be a rise as early as next week.

But don’t get your hopes up. All the sour news out of Europe, while good for the dollar, is bad for the stock market.

There will be a lot of pressure holding the overall market down and throttling back on the power of the big AAPL as well.

Too bad so sad. I certainly would not short this stock though.

On the other hand, it could be risky. If the market decides to take a bigger tumble, dollars could be lost.

Earnings Report

As mentioned a moment ago, the next Earnings report will be out on July 24th. If you have been reading my posts on AAPL, you know that I like to play on Earnings.

Generally speaking, I like to sell a stock before the Earnings Report comes out.

However, the last two ERs for AAPL saw the stock rise sharply the day after the earnings report came out.

The big question is: Will it happen again?

And the answer is: No one knows!

As I recall there were a ton of doubters last time. Going against my normal play, I went ahead and held AAPL and it went up about $50 per share the next days after the report.

However, I did not sell on time and the Stock took a sharp tumble down to the $530 level.

Seeing that this coincided with a support level for the S&P around the 1300 mark, I decided to hold the stock.

Sure enough, it came back up. And I was delighted to sell it for a few dollars / share profit.

What’s next? Hard to tell! There could be a rebound tomorrow or the market could continue its downward move based on the fact that there is a lot of bad news out there.

On the other hand, there could be rebound action tomorrow as well.

In fact, the market as measured by the S&P500 did not stay on its lows yesterday. It came back from lower depths.

That could make a nice prelude to a bump up tomorrow. But, we can never be sure about these things, can one?

Comments? Thoughts? Leave them below.

AAPL Stock Commentary – Pre Market on May 31st 2012

May 31, 2012 by Dave

I thought I would make a few comments this morning just before the market opens (in about 25 minutes at this time).

First a disclosure – I own this stock and have a material interest in it. By the time you read this I may still have a material interest in this stock and / or may take another in the future. Please do not look here for investing advice, I offer none. Go to a professional if you need that. Don’t do anything based on what you read here.

UPDATE To This POST – I sold AAPL for about 577 per share on Thursday and Friday the stock dropped $16 per share.

One of the reasons I did this is that AAPL, I’ve noticed, tends to drop on Fridays. And While the stock did go up as I predicted, the pop wasn’t big enough to impress me that it would continue. Seeing what happened on Friday. I’m glad that I got out. I will watch for a further drop back to around $530 or so.

General AAPL Stuff – I’m Holding It…

Ok, had to get that out of the way! So, first off. Yesterday was a bad day for the market overall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 160 points! Yet, AAPL was up almost 7$ per share for the day.

I have not checked the volume but if AAPL was up higher than average volume over the last 30 days or so, I’d say that is another good sign.

I love when the overall market heads down but my stock of choice heads up. To me, this is a signal of strength.

I am still holding AAPL from my last trade which I bought at $572 per share.

Right now the premarket trading shows AAPL up about $2.15 per share.

If I had to make a prediction at this point, I would guess that AAPL is going to do well today.

Ups And Downs

Institutional investors have a hard time getting into and out of a position easily, so they are often forced to stay in a stock. This has the effect of providing a more or less solid base.

It is the individual investors who are largely responsible for driving the stock up or down on a regular basis.

Like quality stocks, you will see AAPL rise up and down.

The beauty is when there is a serious run up. Such as what happened after the January earnings report where AAPL soared something like $180 per share!

What if you had just 100 shares of the stock at that point?

AAPL After The Last Earnings Report

AAPL ran up about $55 per share after the last earnings report in April 2012 – unfortunately I was hoping for another January performance and I did not sell at that point.

As I did not watch the stock closely it slipped below my buying point and sunk down to as far as about $530 per share. OUCH.

Not only did I miss my profits but I also starting losing money.

AAPL Back UP

Now I am back above the $572 per share that I bought it at and it is close $579 right now.

Again, I expect it to pop up further this morning. This is part of the up and down cycle that a stock can slip into between earning reports.

I don’t have a definitive plan here. I expect AAPL to test $600 again in the next couple of weeks. If it is able to stay above $600 I will watch it rise.

However, if it test $600 and falls below it again, I will probably sell it and wait for it to sink down a bit again.

Of course, this is all speculation and I have no idea what is going to happen with AAPL.

Out Of Time

Ok, I am out of time here as the market is going to open in about 8 minutes. Therefore I need to post this.

I don’t want to be a jerk and past it after the open obvious reasons.

Your Turn

By the time you read this, you will have the benefit of knowing whether I was right or wrong.

So, post your thoughts and comments now and share whatever you want about this stock or any other aspects of the stock market you find interesting.

AAPL Stock Commentary – Pre Market 5-24-2012

May 24, 2012 by Dave

I am writing this post (rather hastily) to get it out before the market opens on 5-24-2012.

Disclosure: I have a material interest in this stock – Ticker symbol AAPL. I currently own it. And I frequently trade it. Do not invest based on information you see here. Do your own research and work with licensed professionals who can help advise you. No such credentialed people blog here! 🙂

What has been happening with this Stock since the last time I wrote about AAPL?

As you can see from that previous post it was to my advantage to hold onto that stock through the earnings report. That is something I typically would not do. However, when the quarterly report for January 2012 came out, the stock moved up $185 points from where I sold it.

Before you ask: YES! That was a major disappointment and horror for me. It was also a little bit painful at times.

I decided to hold through the April 2012 report, partly because of the sting from the previous experience.

AAPL is Busy

Also, I happened to drop by an AAPL store in late March / Early April to add some memory to my MBP.

I was astounded at how busy they were! In fact, they were so busy that they had a local police officer at the door. Side not: I do not believe any retail store has a right to have a tax payer funded officer issued exclusively to them – but I digress.

The fact remains that store was busier than I had ever seen it before.

That made me wonder if they weren’t going to have a stellar report in April. – Obviously, they did.

History Did NOT Repeat Itself

Well, actually history DID repeat itself. After hours trading post earnings in April saw the stock rise about $50 per share! I was very glad I held on to it.

However, the big $185 gain run up that happened in January was not to be repeated. (Sadly enough).

Instead, within a few days the stock began to dip down.

APPL Falls in Value

This is where I made a tactical mistake. I wasn’t paying a great deal of attention and the stock sunk below my buy price.

I bought at $572 per share.

In retrospect, I should have cashed in on that nice gain which put the stock in the 600s. But I did not. I was waiting to see if another stellar ascent was going to happen.

However, the stock kept falling and falling and falling.

The general trend of the market was down during this period -as you probably know.

It is generally difficult, even for a good stock to rise, when the trend of the overall market is down.

So, not only did I NOT cash in on my gain, I was now losing money!

Where Did It Stop?

As the market kept falling, so did APPL. It fell all the way to $530 and below.

The S&P was now testing the all crucial 1300 level and I was worried, but I held on to my seat and didn’t ditch the stock. This was just a few days ago!

I had some confidence that even if not in the immediate future, that AAPL would rise again.

This is one advantage to investing in a powerful company – even if you screw up on your trades, there is a greater chance of recovery. But, one should NEVER bank on that! As it could still go the other way. It just seems to me the safety factor is a little bigger.
Market Dynamics

The S&P did dip below the 1300 level. But it found support there. In the next few days, AAPl rose as the market started to rebound.

There was even a market ‘down’ day where AAPL did not budge much. I often view that as confirmation of the strength of an upward move.

So as the S&P dipped below 1300 so AAPL dipped briefly below $530 per share!

As the S&P found support around 1300 and started to rise, so too AAPL found support around $530 and started to rise!

I was happy. Currently, as of close yesterday AAPL is at around $570 – Only $2 below my buyin price!

That is quite a relief after falling to $530.

What Now for AAPL?

As I write this, the market will open in less than 1 hour. I just checked the NASDAQ site and premarket trading shows AAPL to be up.

It is only up about $1.95 which is not much (less than 1/2 percent) . Update – I refreshed ten minutes later and it was up about $2.50 in premarket trade. (Still not much – but better than the alternative! 🙂 )

Because of the momentum of the market and the strength of APPL though, I will predict a nice pop up on the open.

And hopefully that will continue throughout the day.

Then, I hope that I will carefully monitor this time to make sure that I don’t let it slip below my buying price of about $572.

The hope is that it will find its legs and rise (far) above $600 again.

Again, this is all speculation and a guess. So don’t you dare invest on what you read here. As you can surmise from this article, I have made mistakes (costly ones) in the past and will do so again in the future.

However, we will see how this will play out soon enough.

I wanted to post this before the market opens today. And it looks like I’ve finished about 40 minutes before the market opens.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see if my guess is correct today.

What do you think about this stock going forward? Leave your comments below please.

About The Author

Update On My AAPL Stock Trade

April 24, 2012 by Dave

I’m writing this moments before the market opens on Tuesday April 24th 2012.

Disclosure: I have a vested interest in this stock. Investing is risky and you should not invest your money based on anything you read here. Consult a competent professional before investing any money in any type of investment.

Ok, so you can read what I had to say about AAPL yesterday – which I bought a few days ago on Friday.

My intention is to sell some time today, on Tuesday.

I am doing this for the Earnings play.

Yesterday the stock market as a whole dropped on worries about the Euro and speculation about the break up of the currency. Which probably won’t happen for a long time, if ever.

But news and fear drives the stock market.

However, true to my thoughts. Appl barely moved below its price on Friday.

My theory is that many players will be lining up to play AAPL today.

The price of the stock should move up drastically today. And I will sell sometime today.

However, I could be wrong, it has certainly happened before.

This is my guess about what is going to happen today.

However, I could change my plan, to be inline with changes as necessary.

Ok, we will see how it goes today. Comment below as you wish.

Again, do not invest based on anything you read on this blog. I’m an amateur at best and investing is always a risk.

AFTER HOURS UPDATE

I just checked, AAPL is up $30 in After Hours Trading.

Well, I said above that I reserved the right to change my mind as the day went on and that is what I did.

I held on to the AAPL Stock into earnings and DID NOT sell today.

WHY??

The stock was behaving in a way that I did not expect. It was down for the day. And on top of that volume was pretty much even with the 10 day average.

This meant that the ‘smart money’ was staying put and that got me to wondering. ( Not that I’m saying there is insider information floating around with those institutional investors or anything like that… )

Just saying the ‘smart money’ must have suspected something. Therefore, I made the decision to stay in.

After reading all the naysayers on twitter, I have to admit that I got a bit nervous.

However, when earnings were announced it was clear that the naysayers were mistaken.

So, I held on to AAPL this time and if there is another meteoric rise like last time (after the last earnings report), then I will be glad that I did!

You can comment below…

About The Author

Apple Stock Now At 585 Per Share

March 16, 2012 by Dave

This is truly incredible. Just about the middle of January, I sold my AAPL stock for $424 per share.

I could never have predicted that just two months later it would be at $585.

Here were my previous posts on this stock:

It was an obvious mistake to sell my AAPL Stock.

Why I Sold My AAPL Stock Yesterday

Obviously, it can be said that I had no idea what I was talking about.

When the stock was $100 over where I bought it, I thought it couldn’t possibly go any higher. Now it is nearly $160 per share higher. I cannot begin to tell you how painful that is!

And it appears to be poised to go even higher. This is truly incredible!

And I can see why. Today I was at an AAPL store. They were incredibly busy. There were enough people there that the local police station had an officer standing just outside the door to the store.

I am shocked.

I started talking to one of the guys working there about the stock rise. He said they call can’t believe it either.

He said that he has heard that it may go to $1000 per share.

If I am not mistaken. AAPL has now surpassed Exon as the company with the biggest War chest on the planet.

While I am extremely sad to see that I lost out on the $160 per share gains, I am contemplating a jump back in.

But do NOT listen to me. You can see from the above articles that I am not good at predictions!

Also, you should obtain professional investing advice before taking any action. That was said for your protection as well as mine.

Ok, so where do YOU think AAPL is headed and WHY? (comments open below)

About The Author

Why I Sold My Apple Stock Yesterday…

January 21, 2012 by Dave

Today’s date is January 21st 2012. (Saturday).

This post speaks in general terms and does not seek to offer financial advice. For questions about your unique situation, please consult with the appropriate professional. Invest at your own risk, always.

On Friday, January 20th I sold all shares I was holding of Apple stock.

I took advantage of the Santa Clause effect and the January effect.

I bought in just a few days before Christmas.

I got in somewhere around $391 per share and sold it last Thursday, then bought again on last Friday.

This Friday (yesterday the 20th of January) I sold the stock and will stay out if until after earnings.

The price I sold at was somewhere around $424 per share.

There are a few factors that I considered.

1. The January effect is known to end around mid January.

2. There were a number of tech stocks that were delivering less-than-expected earnings reports this week.

3. Apple’s earning report is on Tuesday, January 24th after the bell.

4. Generally speaking, it is not a good idea to hold through an earnings report – however, sometimes it really pays to do so.

5. On Thursday, the market had a positive day overall but Apple lost a little and it did so on heavier than ‘normal’ volume.

6. Appl had hit a high and appeared to be unable to push beyond it.

7. It started to Fall on Friday. After I got out it feel another 4 dollars beyond the 3 per share it had already fallen when I exited.

These are my reasons for getting out of Appl. Of course, I did not know it would fall further on Friday, but with the exception of that, the other points are reasonable.

Now, I am by no means an expert investor. This trade worked out for me, but not all trades do.

I hope that I have become wiser by making a number of trades over the last several years.

Many investors would not agree with what I have done. Some do not agree with jumping in and out of the market at all.

I trade on my retirement IRAs so I don’t have to worry about recording all the gains and losses for tax purposes. On a taxable account, you do need to worry about this.

Again, you should consult with your investment advisor before making any trades and you should understand all risks involved.

Eventually, I would like to reach the point where I can just make money by writing covered calls. This is what I understand has let to the huge success of Berkshire Hathaway. As I understand it, it is not the long term buy and hold strategy but rather the writing of covered calls (which basically amounts to writing insurance for other investors) is what has led to the huge success of that company. Disclaimer: I could be very wrong about that, but that is what I believe based on ‘hearing’ a few things here and there. So you cannot trust that I am correct on on this matter. As always do your own research!

Another disclaimer: I will probably buy Appl stock again in the near future.

Update: Here is how this all turned out! Was I right or wrong?

This is what I have to say about my latest trade. If you have comments, thoughts, ideas or criticisms, please leave them below:

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Big Stock Investor Guy Actually Sells Insurance?

November 3, 2011 by Dave

I won’t list his actual name because I am not trying to cash in on someone’s name recognition. Although there are plenty of bloggers who would do that. As this blog becomes more popular I am keenly interested in seeing it grow on its own merits.

Anyway, this guy is relatively famous for the ‘buy and hold’ strategy. Therefore, you always hear people using his name when they discuss ‘buy and hold’ – particularly when they are interested in having YOU ‘buy and hold’.

It was very interesting for me, however, when I came across a rather obscure piece of information about this man’s actual investment strategy.

Yes, he does ‘buy and hold’ but as far as I can surmise – perhaps poorly or not – it appears that he ACTUALLY makes his money by selling insurance on those stocks.

In the stock investing world, these are known as ‘covered calls’. Basically, you sell someone the right to buy stock at a certain price for a certain period of time. When that time is up, if they have not exercised that right to buy your shares, they lose that right. But YOU get to keep the money.

This is basically selling insurance. Feel free to correct me if you think I am wrong about that.

Therefore, I have concluded that this great stock investor actually made a lot of money ‘selling insurance’. Perhaps he made a LOT more from these covered calls than he made on the buying and selling of actual stocks themselves.

So, how does this relate to human nature?

Simple. Clearly, many people never bother to look beyond the surface to try and surmise what is really going on.

When you do, you begin to discover ‘whole new worlds’, so to speak, about what is really going on.

This is why we must use our brain. We really need to think about things from many angles. We may not always be right, but it seems to me that we will learn and probably gain a lot more than someone who never looks beyond the surface.

If this man is hailed as one of the greatest investors of all time and he is really making a lot of his money from covered calls – that does alter your perception about how to play the stock market, right?

An important concept?

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Greed, Human Nature and The Stock Market

October 21, 2011 by Dave

Gordon Gecko taunted us with the notion that ‘greed is good’.

I think there is more than one kind of greed though. What happens inside a human’s head in regards to greed?

I think a person gets to a certain point. Then, they want more. But, the reason may not be purely to ‘have more’.

Some people are interested in defending themselves against those who would come and take their wealth. Therefore, they need more money to hire an army of lawyers if it ever comes to that.

Others may actually have the notion of doing some good in this world.

Of course, there is the standard reason of just wanting more because it can be had.

The Stock Markets are a game of greed. People watch as a stock is pushed higher and higher. Everyone knows it has gone about as high as it can before it falls a bit. Sometimes that fall is 20% or more. Then, if it has not become a ‘has been’ stock, it may start to rise again.

What is a ‘has been’ stock? In my opinion that is a stock that no longer has the chops to keep its earnings level high. When investors see the longer term prospects dimming, they will start to pull their money out. I would venture to guess that institutional fund managers are no differenct.

No one really wants to keep a stock that is losing its ability to earn. Those who invest in stocks that have negative earnings are either privy to some intelligence that the rest of us don’t have or can’t get OR they are simply gambling. Some are even doing it on margin!

Greed is an aspect of lowly human nature and attachment. Greed is not good, despite what Mr. Gecko would like us to believe. Greed is a huge problem for individuals and society alike.

But greed is not something that you can easily get rid of. There are a multitude of reasons why people seek to have more. Having more, for some people, means that they have more control.

Have you ever heard the saying that ‘money is a game’?

For the honest hard working people out there who want to live good, decent lives, it is NOT a game. It is a necessity in life. Unfortunately, for others it is a ‘game’. Therefore, some people are playing games with other peoples’ lives and that is dastardly! How else could it be put?

Why not take what you need and leave some for everyone else? Wouldn’t that be a better way.

There will always be people who will seek to have more and more. This really can’t be avoided. I am not so pure either. I also want more. And I am sad for that failing.

The best book I know of is Zhuan Falun. You can get a free copy at Falundafa.org – Check it out. If you understand the nature of who and what we are a little better, it could make a big difference in your life.

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Stock Market Bubbles And Greed

October 19, 2011 by Dave

The problem with the stock market is the same problem in every other investment area, including Real Estate and Commodities. There are bubbles.

There were bubbles in the 1600’s when the Dutch Stock Market was way overbought on tulips. The bubble was huge and many people sold their possessions to get in. In the end, the bubble burst and the panic set in. Selling was fast and furious and fortunes were lost.

This is the cycle that seems to repeat itself over and over again. The patterns can be big and obvious, like the above tulip situation, or they can be less obvious, as in the daily fluctuations in stocks. Aren’t they just mini bubbles of demand after all?

So the problem is that when things are going up, everyone wants in. Some people will sell and make a profit before the bubble bursts. Others will miss their chance and either have to sell on the way down and hopefully not lose everything, OR they will not get the memo that things are falling apart and will lose a lot.

So, if you want to be a successful investor, then you need to understand and know how to take advantage of bubbles.

Someone is going to profit and someone is going to lose. This is similar to gambling of course. Players (investors) are relying on their skill to play a bubble properly. But no one can predict it out with absolute accuracy every time. Unless of course, they are controlling the bubble, but that is a different story.

This is the human nature part. Obviously, the real value of tulips, if there is such a thing, doesn’t really change. Instead, it is the way that humans treat their value that changes. Greed is an aspect of human nature. If you want to win in the environment of bubbles, you need to understand this nature to a greater, not lesser degree. Tricky? You bet it is!

Perhaps it is better to try and be spiritually wise than to gamble with material possessions or money? You tell me. Gordon Gecko says, “Greed is good”. No one accuses him of being a good guy though. What are your thoughts?

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NOTE: this post speaks in general terms and you should seek out professional advice (or help) before taking any risks.

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