Disclaimer: I frequently take positions in this stock. Therefore, I have a material interest in it. You should never invest in anything based on what you read on this site. Invest at your own risk and / or get professional advice.
Post Time 9:03 AM New York Time.
AAPL Around $570
So, yesterday saw a small rebound on the markets after the catastrophe the day before. The S&P is hanging just above the 1300 psychological (an therefore important) level.
The market cares less about averages, but people do. Remember you are never investing in a market, you are investing amidst other people. How well you do has a lot to do with how well you understand the underlying psychology of people who are also investing.
Think about people and what they are doing and what they are likely to do when you make your calculations.
There is plenty of bad news right now. Cyprus has just asked for loans from the EU banking system. Spain needs to ‘recapitalize’ its banks. Unemployment remains high in the US but is absolutely at ridiculous levels in Spain (about 24%)
Remember that bad news drives people and people drive the market.
But, there is also a subset group (that I suspect is rather large) that is waiting for things to drop too far and then they will start to buy. If it goes well, then others will quickly jump in.
This is the dance that is always taking place.
Under The Dance
Under the quick and fast investors are larger investors that cannot get in and out of positions so quickly. When you have millions or billions invested you cannot afford to jump in and out. Therefore, these large institutional funds have to think longer terms and make their gamble based on what they think will happen longer term.
That’s good for the short term investor because it can provide a baseline of stability. However, investing is always a risk and you must never lose site of that.
Despite the fact that I would have done better in AAPL had I stayed in all of this time after I took a position in 2008, I still prefer to jump in and out. Why? Because I sleep better at night!
And that is worth more than any amount of money. LOL.
If you are suspicious of the Financial system and those who have influence upon it, you might feel the same way.
So What Now?
There are two possibilities (as always). There is not a lot of great news out there as I mentioned. Yesterday, did not show much movement upwards in AAPL – A few sense perhaps. When the rest of the market goes up more than a strong performer, it has to make you wonder.
Will there be another, stronger upward move today? I doubt it!
I’m looking for downward movement. But I am not short. I currently (at the time of this writing) don’t hold a position.
Currently, about 30 minutes or so before market open, AAPL is up about 2.45 in premarket trading.
However, that is not a lot given the size of AAPL stock. But those early birds are hoping for a spike on the open when they may choose to sell.
And sometimes that works out.
While it may pop a little on the open, I think it will fall overall today. Bad news and lackluster performance yesterday are the reasons I think this.
Let’s see what happens. What are your thoughts today? Leave comments below.