On January 21st 2012, I sold my Appl stock and documented by reasons.
At the time of this writing, AAPL stock is trading at: 452.91 per share. Obviously, I misjudged the situation.
I sold at around $424 a share. I ditched the stock right before the Earnings report came out.
I have read that more times than naught, a stock will decline after earnings. That was one of my justifications give in the previous AAPL stock post.
I expected that even if there was a sudden increase after earnings that there would be a whiplash decline within a few days.
Sadly for me, I was mistaken. It looks like AAPL is in a definite rise. And I have missed out on a nice gain.
Theoretically speaking I have ‘lost’ almost $20 per share by jumping out.
I believe that I read analysts expect AAPL to go above $550 a share. Of course, you cannot put much stock in that (pun intended)
Analysts are often wrong and even if they are correct, the amount of time before it reaches that height could vary significantly from what would be reasonable. One day AAPL may very well exceed $550 per share, but we don’t know WHEN that will be!
So, my little folly lends more credence to the ‘buy and hold’ philosophy. But, after living through the huge decline in stock prices back in 2007 / 2008 I just can’t put much faith in ‘Buy and Hold’ anymore.
On the other hand, there will be plenty of experts who will be willing to bash me for this kind of logic. Let them! It’s my money and my loss or gain.
There is much risk in investing. You have to make your own choices. I am by no means an investment expert. You should always consult the professionals of your choosing before making any investment decisions.
I hope I make better decisions in the future. But at the very least, I gained on my trade. It’s just that I could have nearly doubled that gain, had I held until today!
No one can accurately predict short term moves in the market. Let the investor be ware!
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